Climate Change

AGC Submission to Australia's Ambassador for the Environment on Climate Change Issues

The following is the text of a submission to the Ambassador of the Environment, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade by Associate Professor John Cann (Department of Applied Geology, School of Engineering, University of South Australia), representing the Australian Geoscience Council.

AUSTRALIA AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS, 17 NOVEMBER 1998

Last Wednesday, 12 November 1997, what was intended to have been a consultative meeting on Australia's stand on the so-called "climate change negotiations", was held at the offices of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Adelaide. I attended this meeting representing the Australian Geoscience Council (AGC). Due to the regrettable behaviour of one of the audience, and the subsequent direction of much of the discussion that followed, time constraints determined that I was unable to present the views of the AGC on one important matter. However, following a brief conversation with the panel after the meeting, I now present comments in writing as requested.

Firstly, the AGC has not had the opportunity to consider the content of the issues paper. Indeed, this document was made available to me only one day before the Adelaide meeting. However, as the AGC is the peak geoscience body in Australia, representing all major groups of Earth science professionals, such as the Geological Society of Australia and the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, we would welcome the opportunity to be better acquainted the issues being debated, and to forward information and a range of opinions that would accurately reflect the views of our member societies.

Secondly, it is clear that some of our member societies have a long-standing commitment to the exploration for, and exploitation of the fossil fuel resources of Australia. The AGC is therefore bound to support moves by government to ensure that industries in this country that are dependent upon coal, gas and liquid petroleum are not disadvantaged by comparison with similarly dependent industries in other countries. Notwithstanding this comment, we applaud all efforts to achieve cleaner air and to reduce the net quantities of carbon dioxide in the modern global atmosphere.

Thirdly, and this is our major concern at this time, we see little evidence that 'climate change' negotiations are proceeding within an adequate framework of knowledge of what constitutes climatic stability. In modern climatic studies we perceive great fluctuations over the brief periods of observation, and at this stage it is premature to attribute any marked variation from the norm to global wanning or any other similarly singular factor. Yet, clearly, it is important that we have the earliest possible indication of trends of climatic change if and as they develop.

It is now well established that global climate has undergone extreme fluctuations, through many glacial and interglacial climatic cycles, during the past few millions of years. In geological terms, these cycles are of relatively short duration, each lasting about 120,000 years. It is perhaps significant that humans have occupied Earth through many such cycles.

We currently live in an interglacial global climatic regime, the onset of which occurred about 18,000 years ago. At that time, global warming was switched on, continental ice underwent rapid melting and within 10 000 years sea-level had risen 130 metres. Sea-level had stabilised by 7500 years ago, giving US the modern coastal configurations of lands and oceans. It is reasonable to suppose that Earth's global climate has conformed to a relatively stable pattern since that time. Thus, if we are to record and measure climatic events, these events should be evaluated against the record of the last 7500 years, not simply the weather patterns observed by just a few generations of humans.

The ACC would like to know the extent to which such evaluation is proceeding. The recently past (Quaternary) sediments of caves, lakes, rivers and coastal waters contain physical, chemical and biological evidence of their depositional environments, including of the climates prevailing at the time of sedimentation. Australia has a particularly rich assortment of environmental settings where such evidence is preserved in the sedimentary record. We also have some outstanding Australian geoscientists who have specialised in the study of Quaternary environments and who are well qualified to inform interested parties of their findings, especially their knowledge of Late Quaternary climates, including the climates of the past 7500 years.

The ACC recommends that:

the concept of 'climatic stability', with the range of fluctuations that is inherent in that notion, be established urgently on the record of past global climates for the past 7500 years;
Australian geoscientists who specialise in Quaternary studies be encouraged to contribute to a systematic synthesis of our knowledge of immediately past climates;
research be actively directed towards filling gaps in our knowledge of Australian climates of the past 7500 years;
the Australian people be better informed, e.g. through media such as television documentaries, of basis of our understanding of past climates and their inherent fluctuations, and of the importance of establishing such knowledge against which to measure modern climatic phenomena; and
that these understandings be incorporated into Australia's international stance on "greenhouse" gases and climatic change.
Finally, the ACC recognises the magnitude of the issues involved in this matter, and expresses its willingness to be involved in ways that may be seen to be helpful.

John Cann